Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
